Florida's Economy in 2025: Growth, Housing, Jobs

  Florida's population is growing, with strong tourism, jobs, and housing demand. Expect more repeat buyers and a strong rental market. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The Florida Chamber Foundation recently presented its virtual 2025 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit, with forecasts for the coming year ranging from population growth to tourism trends. Highlights included: Residential real estate: In 2025 in Florida, analysts expect to see a "little bit more inventory" with "more demand than there is housing," according to Jennifer Warner, economist and director of economic development for Florida Realtors®. There were about 170,000 active listings in 2024, which is high compared with 2023 but in line with historical averages. Demand and a lack of affordability will likely tip people into Florida's rental market. "You're going to see a lot of fewer first-time buyers," Warner says, noting the median age of first-time homebuyers nationally is 38 due to high costs and interest rates. "We're expecting many more repeat buyers — people who already own selling and then buying – because they can use equity to offset those higher lending costs. And we expect to see many older and wealthier people transacting." Multifamily: "We are expecting to see more than 55,000 apartment homes be delivered to the market" in 2025, says Amanda White, vice president of government relations and research for the Florida Apartment Association. That is a slight "cooling" from 2024 when more than 77,000 apartments were delivered. Still, "Demand is robust in Florida," White says, due to population growth and challenges facing single-family homebuyers. "As soon as these apartments are delivered to the market, they're absorbed quickly." She says that rising costs, elevated borrowing rates, and limited access to capital have caused a slowdown in the number of new construction starts. About 78% of developers surveyed said they experienced delays with permitting, and 81% said their deals were repriced during the construction process. "Construction costs have exploded" faster than the inflation rate, according to White. Workforce: One in 14 jobs in the country is created in Florida, according to Mark Wilson, president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Foundation, who says there are more openings than people to fill them. In addition, people ages 20 to 29 years old have been leaving Florida in more significant numbers, notes Sheridan Morby, senior research economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation. Some untapped workforce opportunities, according to Morby, are people ages 16 to 24 neither in school nor employed; 1.8 million Floridians without a high school diploma or GED who "require a little bit of up-skilling," she says; and 15% of parents with young children who left the workforce in the past six months due to challenges accessing childcare. Employers: Top concerns among employers are workforce development/talent, lack of affordable housing, runaway litigation and insurance costs, and infrastructure. Analysts say hiring will likely slow in 2025, while Florida's unemployment rate is expected to stay low, about 3.6% to 3.8%. The chamber foundation projects the state's annual job growth will be 1% to 1.25%. Population growth: Florida leads the nation in net income migration, with a gain of $36.1 billion from 2021 to 2022, with the most money coming from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, and Pennsylvania. The only state Florida was losing money to was Tennessee. Also, more people are moving to Florida than any other state; however, Florida also has the second-highest outflow and was losing people to 19 states in 2023 versus 14 states in 2022. "When we look at a critical age bracket, 20 to 29, we do see an uptick in the number of people leaving Florida," Wilson says. "The top two reasons they give us are the cost of homeownership and job opportunities in other states." Florida Chamber Foundation analysts expect the state's population to grow 1.7% in 2025 to about 23.75 million. In the next five years, more than 80% of Florida's growth will be in 10 counties, including Hillsborough, Lee, Polk, and Pasco. Tourism: Florida had 140.6 million visitors in 2023, according to Brett Laiken, chief marketing officer for Visit Florida. Tourism added $127.7 billion to the economy and saved each Florida taxpayer $1,910 in 2023, Laiken says. About 2.1 million jobs statewide are supported by tourism. Economic growth: Florida had the fourth-highest gross domestic product in the country, based on data from the second quarter of 2024. The state ranks behind California, Texas, and New York. According to the Florida Chamber Foundation, Florida's GDP was $1.72 trillion.

What Today’s Homebuyers Want in a Real Estate Agent

  Gone are the days when all a homebuyer needed was someone to walk them through a house and show up on the closing day. Today’s homebuyers are looking for a lot more when choosing a REALTOR®, and they have high expectations for precisely what — and how — that agent should deliver. In a recent study by Open Listings, the words “quick,” “responsive,” and “available” were seen throughout five-star real estate agent reviews. Homebuyers want an agent with “on-demand(ish) availability.” But what are the other things buyers are looking for when finding a REALTOR®? Tech-savvy They want an agent who is plugged in — one who has a social media presence and a website and can help them find homes in the most digitally savvy, up-to-date ways out there. They want to schedule showings via apps and websites and prefer text and email communication almost exclusively . No pressure sales Today’s buyers don’t want the hard sell, nor do they want their agent to push or pressure them toward a decision. The term “helpful” showed up in many reviews. They want information so they can make educated, intelligent decisions. They do not want someone to make the decisions for them. Local knowledge Though buyers want tech-savvy, they don’t want a REALTOR® who is inaccessible or far away. When looking online, most search for a “realtor near me.” Their agent needs to know the area they’re buying in and perhaps even be able to provide the inside scoop. People skills: Homebuyers want to feel at ease with their agents. Buying a home is a big decision, and it can be scary (whether people want to admit it or not). So when it comes to working with an agent, buyers want someone friendly, polite, and just lovely. Having a personal REALTOR®–client connection can go a long way now, especially regarding referrals down the road. A partner Buyers are looking for a partner in the home buying process. They want an ally who has their best interest at heart and can guide them from start to successful finish. They want someone who can help every step of the way, from finding potential homes and touring those properties to negotiating a great deal and signing the closing papers. If you have any questions about home loans or want a lender to work with, please contact Embrace today. We’re here to help.

January Shows More Job Gains; Rate Cuts Likely ‘On Hold’

  Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 in January, while the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4%, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 7. Job gains were in the healthcare, retail trade, and social assistance sectors, while job losses were seen in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industries. While the unemployment rate had been relatively steady for seven months, wavering between 4.2% and 4.1%, the raw number of unemployed in the U.S.—at 6.8 million—ticked slightly from 6.9 million last month. The report also showed an average hourly earnings gain of 4.1% over the prior 12 months. Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant offered a partial recap and additional commentary on what today’s jobs report might mean for the housing market moving forward: “The labor market is on solid footing to begin 2025,” she said. “While there have been some cooling labor market conditions, such as fewer job openings, today’s report indicates that the U.S. economy remained resilient to start the year. In January, the economy added 143,000 jobs, slightly below expectations. Job growth may have come in lower than predicted because of the impacts of winter storms in the East and South and the wildfires in Los Angeles…(w)ages continue to rise faster than inflation. “Although today’s job report is generally positive, it offers a mixed bag for the housing market. With more jobs added in relatively high-wage sectors and overall earnings rising, prospective homebuyers will feel more confident heading into the spring housing market. However, with employers still adding jobs at a healthy pace and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at its March meeting, meaning mortgage rates could remain in the high 6% range heading into spring.” MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni also clarified that there were a few reasons to pump the brakes, including a rate of job additions that likely cannot be sustained in the long term. “At first glance, on the net, these data indicate a job market that remains reasonably strong. Job growth over the past three months has averaged a gain of 237,000, likely above what can be sustained this year. “However, several factors are working to cloud this picture. First, there were substantial revisions to prior payroll data, with job growth from the most recent months revised higher, but the annual benchmark process showed slower job growth for 2024. Second, the household survey was adjusted in January to recognize the impact of substantial international immigration in recent years, adding 2.9 million people to the population count as of January, one factor pushing the unemployment rate down. Finally, the wildfires in Los Angeles and severe winter weather events across the country, while not impacting the results according to BLS, are another source of uncertainty. “With all the caveats, these job market data will likely keep the Fed on hold concerning further rate cuts. With inflation still above target, and no appreciable signs of weakening in the job market, MBA forecasts that the Fed will make at most one more cut this cycle.” Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale had this to say about the jobs report: “Existing-home sales closed out 2024 with a strong upswing, but mortgage rates have hovered near 7% since then, putting a question mark on the upcoming spring housing season as pending home sales pulled back in December. Early 2025 housing data from Realtor.com showed healthy seller engagement, but affordability remains a challenge that is acutely felt by younger households who have seen homeownership rates slip. Majorities still say that homeownership is part of the American Dream, but. Still, younger holds are less likely to do so and less likely to say homeownership is achievable. “A healthy labor market that provides younger workers opportunities is essential, but it isn’t enough to make homeownership achievable. The U.S. has a housing shortage estimated by Realtor.com to be between 2.5 and 7.2 million homes. States that can build more housing and provide economic opportunity for residents will have an edge.” Among the major worker demographics, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.7%), adult women (3.7%), teenagers (11.8%), whites (3.5%), Blacks (6.2%), Asians (3.7%), and Hispanics (4.8%) all showed little to no change for January. Those considered unemployed in the long-term (those who are jobless for 27 weeks or more) registered 1.4 million people in January, little changed from December. This type of unemployment accounted for 21.1% of the total unemployed people nationwide. For January, the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio were unchanged from December, registering 62.6% and 60.1%, respectively (these numbers were calculated after accounting for the annual adjustments to population controls). The number of people employed part-time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, also changed little in January. These individuals would have preferred to work full-time but were working part-time due to reduced hours or the inability to find a full-time job. The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.5 million, again saw little change in January. These individuals weren’t tallied in unemployment figures because they were not actively looking for work during the four weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to work.

Mortgage Applications Increase This Week Following 6-Week Low in Rates

  While mortgage rates are still hovering just under 7%, the average fixed rate hit a six-week low this past week, leading to a bump in mortgage applications as February begins. In the latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications increased by 2.2% from the previous week’s 2.0% drop. The data is reported for the January 31, 2025 week, with an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for (the) stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97%,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12% increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.” According to this week’s report, the Market Composite Index, a mortgage loan application volume measure, increased 2.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. The Index increased 19% unadjusted compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12% from the last, 17% higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 4% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15% compared with the previous week and was 0.2% higher than the same week one year ago. Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.” Refi’s still on the rise: The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 39.0% of total applications from 37.1% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity remained unchanged at 5.8% of total applications.