FCC Postpones New Robocall Consent Rules

  Due to a pending case, the FCC delayed new robocall and Robotech consent rules, initially set for Jan. 27. Join the NAR webinar today at 2 p.m. for updates. ORLANDO, Fla. — The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) released an order Friday postponing enforcement of the Telephone Consumer Protection Act's (TCPA) one-to-one written consumer consent to redefine the meaning of “prior express written consent.”The new consent rules for robocalls and robotexts were expected to begin Monday (Jan. 27). A pending case under judicial review in the 11th Circuit triggered the delay. Additional updates are expected shortly. The TCPA was signed into law in 1991 to limit unwanted telemarketing calls and faxes. In 2003, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) established a national Do-Not-Call registry. Over the years, amendments have been made to update the act. Under the new consent rules, businesses that want to call, text, or drop a prerecorded message using an auto-dialer must obtain one-to-one written consumer consent, called the one-to-one consent rule.

Seller Profit Margins Fall for Second Year in a Row

  ATTOM Data's Year End 2024 Home Sales Report found that home sellers made a $122,500 profit on typical sales in 2024, a return on investment of 53.8%. Although both numbers soared to near-record levels, the profit margin for median-priced home sales nationwide receded from 56.9% to 53.8%. This decline in profit margin marked the second annual decrease, a pattern that has not been seen since the aftermath of the great recession of the late 2000s. Even though gross profit on median single-family homes and condo sales rose by about $2,000 from 2023, the margins within those gross profits took a relatively steep cut: 8% below a peak from 2022, according to the report. "(T)he U.S. housing market mostly rebounded nicely in 2024," said Rob Barber, ATTOM CEO. "Prices went back up at a healthy clip, and homeowners continued to make some of the best profits on sales in the past 25 years. The renewed shine, however, didn't come without a bit of tarnish as margins took another turn for the worse. Amid the generally good news, that's something worth following closely in 2025." ATTOM's data also showed that the median national home price rose 5% to a record $350,000 marker. ATTOM measured return on investment for 127 metropolitan statistical areas with a population north of 200,000 and sufficient sales data, finding that the country's Northeast, South, and Western regions had nearly all of the highest ROI metros, with 29 out of 30. San Jose, California, led the way with a 105.8% return on investment. This was followed by Knoxville, Tennessee (94.3%), Ocala, Florida (87.1%), Seattle, Washington (85.6%) and Scranton, Pennsylvania (85%). The Midwest and Northeast were home to metros with the most significant increases in profit margin from 2023 to 2024, with Syracuse and Rochester, New York, seeing seller margins rise by double digits (13.3% and 10.4%, respectively). Industry analysts have recently identified Rochester as a "hot" housing market in recent years. It has also been highly rated for its affordability compared to the rest of the country. On the other side of the profitability coin was the Southern region of the U.S., which contained the 10 most significant decreases in investment. This was led by Fayetteville, Arkansas, which experienced a decline in ROI from 71.9% to 51.3% yearly. This was followed by Ocala, Florida (105.7% to 87.1%), Sarasota, Florida (80.6% to 64.6%), Chattanooga, Tennessee (80.6% to 65.9%), and Crestview-Fort Walton Beach, Florida (60.1% to 45.9%). ATTOM found that profit margins on typical home sales declined from 2023 to 2024 in 73% of the 127 metros with sufficient data to analyze for investment returns, or 93 of such metros expressed as a raw number. According to Barber, Home prices are stretching household budgets more and more, and mortgage rates have been increasing in recent months even as other forces put more upward pressure on prices. So, significant factors undoubtedly could propel the market up or settle it back down. Either will have a substantial effect on seller returns.”

U.S. Housing Starts End 2024 on High Note

  HUD reported that overall housing starts increased 15.8% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million units. WASHINGTON—Fueled by solid demand, single-family construction increased in December despite several industry headwinds, including high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a lack of buildable lots. Overall housing starts increased 15.8% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.50 million units, according to a U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development report and the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the highest rate since February 2024. The December reading of 1.50 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this pace for the next 12 months. Within this number, single-family starts increased by 3.3% to a 1.05 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The multifamily sector, which includes apartment buildings and condos, increased 61.5% to a 449,000 pace. The total number of housing starts in 2024 was 1.36 million, a 3.9% decline from the 1.42 million total in 2023. Single-family starts totaled 1.01 million in 2024, up 6.5% from the previous year. Multifamily starts ended the year down 25% from 2023. “Single-family home building increased 6.5% for 2024, as builders added more supply in a market continuing to face a housing affordability crisis due to elevated mortgage interest rates and higher construction costs,” said Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “Nonetheless, the industry expects to see a slight gain for single-family home building in 2025 because of a persistent housing shortage and ongoing solid economic conditions.” “While December was a solid month for apartment starts, the sector ended 2024 down 25% in total starts,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “In December, and on a three-month moving average basis, there were 1.7 apartments completing construction for every one apartment starting construction. Multifamily construction will stabilize in 2025 as more deals pencil out, with the industry supported by a low national unemployment rate.” Looking at regional housing starts data for 2024, combined single-family and multifamily starts were 9.1% higher in the Northeast, 0.1% lower in the Midwest, 5.2% lower in the South and 7.7% lower in the West. Overall permits decreased 0.7% to a 1.48-million-unit annualized rate in December and were down 3.1% compared to December 2023. Single-family permits increased 1.6% to a 992,000-unit rate but were down 2.5% in December compared to the previous year. Multifamily permits decreased by 5.0% to a 491,000 pace. Regional permit data for 2024 show that permits were 1.5% higher in the Northeast, 3.5% higher in the Midwest, 3.1% lower in the South, and 6.6% lower in the West. The total number of permits in 2024 was 1.47 million, a 2.6% decline from the 1.51 million total in 2023. However, the number of single-family permits in 2024 totaled 981,000, up 6.6% from the previous year, a positive sign for 2025. The number of single-family homes under construction was 641,000, down 5.3% from a year ago. The number of apartments under construction was 790,000, down 21% from a year ago. The number of apartments under construction peaked at 1.02 million in July 2023 and has decreased since then.

2025: A Year of Stabilization and Opportunities

  NAR forecasts mortgage rates to stabilize near 6% in 2025, likely establishing a new normal. Inventory will gradually grow. CHICAGO &mdash: The year ahead is poised to bring more opportunities for homebuyers as the housing market stabilizes. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual approach to easing monetary policy in 2025. While concerns about federal deficits and rising public debt may cap the extent of those rate cuts, borrowing costs are anticipated to stabilize overall, offering some relief to prospective buyers. However, mortgage rates are unlikely to return to the ultra-low levels seen during the pandemic or the pre-pandemic levels. Affordability will remain a concern for many, particularly in high-demand markets. The National Association of Realtors&reg forecasts mortgage rates to stabilize near 6% in 2025, likely establishing a new normal. 2025 NAR forecast: Existing home sales, 30-year fixed mortgage rate, housing starts. At this rate, more buyers are expected to return to the market, boosting activity. When mortgage rates fall below 6.5%, the qualifying income required to purchase a median-priced home drops below $100,000, less than the estimated median family income. If rates stabilize around 6%, about 6.2 million households can again afford median-priced homes, compared to the current constraints with rates near 7%. While housing shortages remain a long-term constraint, inventory levels are gradually improving and poised to increase further in 2025. This uptick is anticipated from a combination of new construction projects and homeowners deciding to list their properties, encouraged by stabilizing mortgage rates and improving market conditions. Lower rates can significantly benefit homebuilders by reducing financing costs and boosting market confidence. This is expected to lead to increased construction and housing starts approaching the historical average annual level of 1.5 million units in the next couple of years. However, despite these gains, inventory levels are still expected to fall short of pre-pandemic norms, continuing to present buyer challenges. Home prices will continue to increase in 2025, but at a slower pace compared to previous years, with increases likely to be around 2%.