Florida's Economy in 2025: Growth, Housing, Jobs

Florida's population is growing, with strong tourism, jobs, and housing demand. Expect more repeat buyers and a strong rental market. TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — The Florida Chamber Foundation recently presented its virtual 2025 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit, with forecasts for the coming year ranging from population growth to tourism trends. Highlights included: Residential real estate: In 2025 in Florida, analysts expect to see a "little bit more inventory" with "more demand than there is housing," according to Jennifer Warner, economist and director of economic development for Florida Realtors®. There were about 170,000 active listings in 2024, which is high compared with 2023 but in line with historical averages. Demand and a lack of affordability will likely tip people into Florida's rental market. "You're going to see a lot of fewer first-time buyers," Warner says, noting the median age of first-time homebuyers nationally is 38 due to high costs and interest rates. "We're expecting many more repeat buyers — people who already own selling and then buying – because they can use equity to offset those higher lending costs. And we expect to see many older and wealthier people transacting." Multifamily: "We are expecting to see more than 55,000 apartment homes be delivered to the market" in 2025, says Amanda White, vice president of government relations and research for the Florida Apartment Association. That is a slight "cooling" from 2024 when more than 77,000 apartments were delivered. Still, "Demand is robust in Florida," White says, due to population growth and challenges facing single-family homebuyers. "As soon as these apartments are delivered to the market, they're absorbed quickly." She says that rising costs, elevated borrowing rates, and limited access to capital have caused a slowdown in the number of new construction starts.

About 78% of developers surveyed said they experienced delays with permitting, and 81% said their deals were repriced during the construction process. "Construction costs have exploded" faster than the inflation rate, according to White. Workforce: One in 14 jobs in the country is created in Florida, according to Mark Wilson, president of the Florida Chamber of Commerce and Foundation, who says there are more openings than people to fill them. In addition, people ages 20 to 29 years old have been leaving Florida in more significant numbers, notes Sheridan Morby, senior research economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation. Some untapped workforce opportunities, according to Morby, are people ages 16 to 24 neither in school nor employed; 1.8 million Floridians without a high school diploma or GED who "require a little bit of up-skilling," she says; and 15% of parents with young children who left the workforce in the past six months due to challenges accessing childcare. Employers: Top concerns among employers are workforce development/talent, lack of affordable housing, runaway litigation and insurance costs, and infrastructure. Analysts say hiring will likely slow in 2025, while Florida's unemployment rate is expected to stay low, about 3.6% to 3.8%. The chamber foundation projects the state's annual job growth will be 1% to 1.25%. Population growth: Florida leads the nation in net income migration, with a gain of $36.1 billion from 2021 to 2022, with the most money coming from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, and Pennsylvania. The only state Florida was losing money to was Tennessee. Also, more people are moving to Florida than any other state; however, Florida also has the second-highest outflow and was losing people to 19 states in 2023 versus 14 states in 2022. "When we look at a critical age bracket, 20 to 29, we do see an uptick in the number of people leaving Florida," Wilson says. "The top two reasons they give us are the cost of homeownership and job opportunities in other states." Florida Chamber Foundation analysts expect the state's population to grow 1.7% in 2025 to about 23.75 million.

In the next five years, more than 80% of Florida's growth will be in 10 counties, including Hillsborough, Lee, Polk, and Pasco. Tourism: Florida had 140.6 million visitors in 2023, according to Brett Laiken, chief marketing officer for Visit Florida. Tourism added $127.7 billion to the economy and saved each Florida taxpayer $1,910 in 2023, Laiken says. About 2.1 million jobs statewide are supported by tourism. Economic growth: Florida had the fourth-highest gross domestic product in the country, based on data from the second quarter of 2024. The state ranks behind California, Texas, and New York. According to the Florida Chamber Foundation, Florida's GDP was $1.72 trillion.